The World Bank said on Monday it had lowered its economic growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa this year to 3% from 3.4%, mainly due to the destruction of Sudan’s economy in a civil war.
However, growth is expected to remain comfortably above last year’s 2.4% thanks to higher private consumption and investment, the bank said in its latest regional economic outlook report, Africa’s Pulse.
“This is still a recovery that is basically in slow gear,” Andrew Dabalen, chief economist for the Africa region at the World Bank, told a media briefing.
The report forecast next year’s growth at 3.9%, above its previous prediction of 3.8%.
Moderating inflation in many countries will allow policymakers to start lowering elevated lending rates, the report said.
However, the growth forecasts still face serious risks from armed conflict and climate events such as droughts, floods and cyclones, it added.
Without the conflict in Sudan, which devastated economic activity and caused starvation and widespread displacement, regional growth in 2024 would have been half a percentage point higher and in line with its initial April estimate, the lender said.
Growth in the region’s most advanced economy, South Africa, is expected to increase to 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2025, the report said, from 0.7% last year.
Nigeria is expected to grow at 3.3% this year, rising to 3.6% in 2025, while Kenya, the richest economy in East Africa, is likely to expand by 5% this year, the report said.
